Donald Trump shot

Some thoughts on the failed assassination attempt on former President Trump.

I will keep this post brief. The consequences of this event will not be clear for a while, yet it is nonetheless important to start thinking on how this will shape the November elections. I will simply leave the following short bullet points for your consideration:

1. First and foremost, expect the media landscape in the US to focus on this event for the coming weeks. Other planned events, discussions, and actions may be delegated to the background in light of the failed assassination attempt.
2. For a while there might be public condemnation from both sides, and outlandish accusations may not take hold quick. Escalation in discourse, however, is very likely, especially if higher echelons of either party (but especially Trump’s actions in particular) engage in destructive behaviour. The tension between those who wish for conciliation and those who will weaponise this tragedy to its full extent might not be clear at some points, but it is there.
3. Joe Biden, prior to the shooting, had a chance to abandon the race for the White House in favour of a more consensual candidate with greater energy and an incrementally greater chance of actually succeeding in the elections. Whereas I believed at the end of last week that this week or the next offered a good chance for Biden to announce such a move — which, despite some resistance from Biden himself, I believed the tone was being set for — it is now virtually impossible to find a good moment to do so.
4. This will affect Donald Trump on a personal level. Do not forget that he is merely a man, and as such is prone, like all of us, to being affected by such a traumatic event. It is no exaggeration to say that Donald Trump was milimiters away from death last Saturday night, and he will make of that what he will. Whether he escalates or tones down his rhetoric as a consequence is entirely up to him and his understanding, and it might not be an entirely rational decision. He may win the electorate’s sympathy just as easily as he may lose it as a consequence of his response.
5. Finally, no outcome will be predetermined from this event. Democrats and Republicans, the electorate, the media, and civil society in general still have agency in how the election plays out, and there are still courses of action which can lead the result one way or another. Now is the time for sound decision-making for every stakeholder in this election.